Ben Kenney
May 21, 2024 8:32 am CT
Another significant milestone of the college football offseason was reached today. ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his updated post-spring SP+ rankings for the 2024 college football season.
The metric is forward-looking. The ratings merge returning production from the previous year, recent recruiting and transfer portal performance, and each program’s recent on-field history to attempt to create the most accurate forecast for the upcoming year. More than the AP Poll just basing much of the voting off last year’s results, Connelly’s numbers actually consider the factors that decide success.
Related:Big Ten football 2024 season win-loss record predictions for each team after spring practice
SP+’s latest update presents an interesting look at the new Big Ten Conference entering 2024. It’s hard to predict where newcomers USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington will finish. But the ranking offers a good look at how the teams initially compare to the rest of the conference.
That thought also applies to a Wisconsin program in need of a resurgent season. The Badgers occupied a ranking anywhere from No. 12 to No. 20 for much of the Paul Chryst era — those teams buoyed by dominant defenses. Luke Fickell is still working to establish the program’s identity and find a consistent spot within the nation’s top 25. ESPN SP+ can give an early indication on if that will happen in 2024.
Related: Post-spring Big Ten football 2024 power rankings, starting quarterback rankings
Remember, Connelly always adds this disclaimer when it comes to his rankings:
A reminder on SP+: It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
Here is where Wisconsin ranks among Big Ten teams in his metric’s post-spring update:
18
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on during the Indiana football spring game at Memorial Stadium on Thursday, April 18, 2024. Credit: Bobby Goddin/Herald-Times-USA TODAY NETWORK
SP+ Rating:-5.7 (No. 85 overall)
Offensive Rating:22.0 (No. 95)
Defensive Rating:27.8 (No. 62)
17
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State’s head coach Jonathan Smith looks on during the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Nick King/Lansing State Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK
SP+ Rating:-4.9 (No. 82 overall)
Offensive Rating: 15.4 (No. 125)
Defensive Rating:20.4 (No. 30)
Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions onSpartans Wire
16
Northwestern Wildcats
Sept. 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey; Northwestern Wildcats interim coach David Braun shakes hands with Northwestern Wildcats wide receiver Jack Kennedy (1) before the game at SHI Stadium. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:-3.4 (No. 74 overall)
Offensive Rating:17.0 (No. 119)
Defensive Rating:20.3 (No. 29)
15
Purdue Boilermakers
Nov. 18, 2023; Evanston, Illinois; Purdue Boilermakers head coach Ryan Walters watches his team play against the Northwestern Wildcats in the fourth quarter at Ryan Field. Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:-3.0 (No. 72 overall)
Offensive Rating:25.5 (No. 74)
Defensive Rating:28.5 (No. 68)
14
Illinois Fighting Illini
Oct. 29, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema greets linebacker Tarique Barnes (8) on the sideline during the fourth quarter against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:-1.3 (No. 66 overall)
Offensive Rating:22.6 (No. 90)
Defensive Rating:23.9 (No. 40)
13
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Coach Greg Schiano and quarterback, Athan Kaliakmanis during Rutgers annual spring football game at SHI Stadium. Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com-USA TODAY NETWORK
SP+ Rating:3.9 (No. 49 overall)
Offensive Rating:22.5 (No. 92)
Defensive Rating:18.6 (No. 20)
Get more (Rutgers) news, analysis and opinions onRutgers Wire
12
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Oct 21, 2023; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck watches a replay against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:4.8 (No. 45 overall)
Offensive Rating:23.6 (No. 82)
Defensive Rating:18.8 (No. 22)
11
Maryland Terrapins
Oct. 28, 2023; Evanston, Illinois; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley (center) on the sidelines during the second half at Ryan Field. David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:5.0 (No. 44 overall)
Offensive Rating:22.9 (No. 87)
Defensive Rating:17.9 (No. 17)
10
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nov. 11, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule during the third quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Memorial Stadium. Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:7.1 (No. 40 overall)
Offensive Rating:19.6 (No. 104)
Defensive Rating:12.5 (No. 6)
Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions onCornhuskers Wire
9
Washington Huskies
Dec. 1, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada; Washington Huskies running back Dillon Johnson (7) rushes against the Oregon Ducks during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:9.1 (No. 35 overall)
Offensive Rating:34.2 (No. 28)
Defensive Rating:25.1 (No. 46)
8
Wisconsin Badgers
Oct, 7, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin; Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is shown during the second quarter against Rutgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:10.8 (No. 27 overall)
Offensive Rating:24.1 (No. 80)
Defensive Rating:13.3 (No. 7)
7
UCLA Bruins
Feb. 13, 2024; Los Angeles, California; UCLA Bruins athletic director Martin Jarmond, right, with new head football coach DeShaun Foster during a press conference at Pauley Pavilion. Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:11.3 (No. 26 overall)
Offensive Rating:30.8 (No. 51)
Defensive Rating:19.5 (No. 27)
Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions onUCLA Wire
6
Iowa Hawkeyes
Oct. 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:13.2 (No. 22 overall)
Offensive Rating:17.9 (No. 117)
Defensive Rating:4.7 (No. 2)
Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire
5
USC Trojans
Oct. 28, 2023; Berkeley, California; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after a penalty during the third quarter against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:13.6 (No. 21 overall)
Offensive Rating:44.0 (No. 5)
Defensive Rating:30.5 (No. 87)
Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire
4
Penn State Nittany Lions
Dec. 30, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin on the sidelines against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:26.8 (No. 7 overall)
Offensive Rating:36.1 (No. 23)
Defensive Rating:9.3 (No. 4)
Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire
3
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore watches a play during the second half of the spring game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, April 20, 2024. Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK
SP+ Rating:27.5 (No. 6 overall)
Offensive Rating:32.9 (No. 32)
Defensive Rating:5.5 (No. 3)
Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire
2
Oregon Ducks
Sept. 30, 2023; Stanford, California; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning walks on the field before the game against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating:30.8 (No. 3 overall)
Offensive Rating:48.0 (No. 1)
Defensive Rating: 17.2 (No. 14)
Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire
1
Ohio State Buckeyes
Dec. 29, 2023; Arlington, Texas; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day walks off the field after losing 14-3 to Missouri Tigers in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium. Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch-USA TODAY NETWORK
SP+ Rating:32.7 (No. 2 overall)
Offensive Rating:36.6 (No. 20)
Defensive Rating:4.0 (No. 1)
Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire
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